“Great Power Competition is Technology Competition.”

Matrix theory provides a new framework for understanding this relationship, demonstrating how technological capabilities produce exponential rather than merely additive effects on traditional elements of national power. This exponential relationship can be mathematically expressed as Ptotal = P(traditional powers)T(emerging tech), ,traditional power elements serve as the base, while technological capabilities act as dynamic exponents that amplify these foundations.

Quote from Technology in Great Power Competition: Matrix theory

The amplification of national power through technology operates through three distinct mechanisms of increasing importance. At the foundational level, first-mover advantage provides initial benefits from early technological adoption. The British textile industry's early mechanization in the late 18th century exemplifies these baseline advantages. While Britain gained immediate benefits from increased productivity and established initial technical standards, these advantages proved relatively transient as other nations eventually adopted and improved upon the technology. First-mover advantage, while significant for establishing initial positions, typically represents the most basic level of technological amplification.[1]

Moving up the hierarchy, cascade effects generate more substantial power amplification through chain reactions of innovation and development. The Dutch maritime technological revolution of the 16th century demonstrates this intermediate level of impact. Initial advances in shipbuilding triggered cascading developments in navigation, cartography, and maritime commerce. These cascade effects transformed not only naval capabilities but also trading systems, financial instruments, and administrative practices. The Dutch fluty ship design, for instance, triggered improvements in port facilities, cargo handling systems, and maritime insurance practices, creating what Jonathan Israel defined technological cascade that enhanced multiple domains of national power simultaneously.[2]

At the highest level of impact, asymmetric value generation creates disproportionate returns that fundamentally alter power relationships between states. The German chemical industry's development in the late 19th century exemplifies this supreme form of power amplification. Relatively modest investments in organic chemistry research yielded disproportionate returns across multiple domains: military capability, economic power, and diplomatic influence. By 1914, German firms controlled over 80% of the global chemical market, but more importantly, their technological edge provided leverage far exceeding the scope of the chemical industry itself. This asymmetric advantage enabled Germany to influence international relations, shape industrial development patterns, and establish technological dependencies that persisted for decades.[3]

[1] Landes, David S. The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present.Cambridge University Press, 1969.

[2] Israel, Jonathan. Dutch Primacy in World Trade, 1585-1740. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1989.

[3] Murmann, Johann Peter. Knowledge and Competitive Advantage: The Coevolution of Firms, Technology, and National Institutions. Cambridge University Press, 2003.

Assessment Framework

The research developed a survey-based evaluation as part of this research to empirically validate and refine the framework by collecting expert assessments on the U.S.-China competition in ongoing competition and the U.S.-Soviet Union competition in past decades. The survey invites experts in international relations, defense strategy, and emerging technologies to systematically evaluate each country's score on capabilities of emerging technologies and its amplified power for both great power competitions, using the seven elements of the proposed framework: technology readiness level (TRL), first-mover advantage, asymmetric value, cascade potential, impact on strategic deterrence, disruption of alliances, and economic amplification.

Whether you're a policymaker, technical expert, or private sector leader, your insights are crucial for understanding how minor technological advancements can shift global power dynamics. Interested in contributing? Click the link below to take the survey and participate in this exciting research!

Publications or other works under this project

Paper

Liu, Y. (2024). Shifting Assumptions in Counting Cyber Threats: A Relational Approach to Understanding the US-China Cybersecurity Discourse. International Studies Association

Liu, Y. (2023). The Unavoidable Arms Race: An Assessment of Defense Spending and Purchasing Power. [Under Review]. World Affairs.

Policy Memos

PROPOSED MEMORANDUM FOR REDUCING RISKS FROM ADVANCED GENERAL-PURPOSE AI SYSTEMS, Oct 2024

FUTURE SCENARIOS IN AI COMPETITION BETWEEN U.S. AND CHINA, Sep 2024

Events

Lead, Tech Panel, UChicago China Forum, Chicago, 2024

International Studies Association Annual Convention, 2024-2025

Contact me.

If you're interested in the project and would like more information, feel free to contact me. I'd be happy to discuss further!

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Big Techs v.s. Governments